In proteomics experiments, database-search programs are the method of choice for protein identification from tandem mass spectra. As amino acid sequence databases grow however, computing resources required for these programs have become prohibitive, particularly in searches for modified proteins. Recently, methods to limit the number of spectra to be searched based on spectral quality have been proposed by different research groups, but rankings of spectral quality have thus far been based on arbitrary cut-off values. In this work, we develop a more readily interpretable spectral quality statistic by providing probability values for the likelihood that spectra will be identifiable.